Happy Sunday.
I had a fun Saturday seeing family and friends in Toronto. Of course, no Toronto stay is complete without multiple trips to Bagel World. I have had the same order since I was six. A poppy twister with cream cheese. The memories are all good and the taste is just the same:
Onwards…
Investors and founders seem to be ignoring the macro even though interest rates continue to push higher along with inflation.
I watched this gem of an interview with Stanley Druckenmiller yesterday that covered the macro and some investing lessons. Do yourself a favor and have a listen.
Crypto is crashing again. I sold a lot along the way up but now that we are down 70-80 percent on most ‘blue chip’ crypto, I can safely say NOT ENOUGH.
I do not have any advice to offer. I treat it like venture capital and I have too much venture capital :) .
The team at A16z has shared a ‘State of Crypto Report‘ and it is a good read. Crypto is only down 30 percent since they published it in May! A16z has billions to invest and you probably do not, so please remember where you sit in the capital and pain food chain.
This Twitter thread from ‘buccocapital’ summarizing Docusign CEO’s explanation of sales rep retention is excellent. Brain drain is real and so are the multiplier effects of it.
That is enough of that…
I have a short cash rant now. Not enough founders are taking it seriously. Many take comfort in blaming the venture capitalists for mood swings. That is fine and dandy but does not solve for the reality.
For the last year as I have shared here my higher allocations to cash, I continue to be told I am stupid because you know ‘inflation’ or told to ‘buy Bitcoin’.
In hindsight peak ‘cash’ or ‘cash is a commodity’ was last March. I know where I was. I was raising money for my SPAC.
Here is a chart of the US dollar the last year:
Cash is becoming scarce and likely scarcer for startups, not just because of the mood swings, interest rate hikes, inflation or global tensions…but because these new macro events create unintended wild new trends that will attract the cash that might have been earmarked for you.
End of cash rant.
Finally, my celebrity story…
Rachel and I are staying at the Four Seasons in Toronto and the weekend started with me running into George Hincapie who is here for a charity ride. Was fun to say hello and introduce Rachel to him. But, that’s not the story.
Last night, we were coming home and saw Arnold Schwarzenegger as we entered the hotel. We ended up riding the elevator together and had a funny short conversation. He had been ‘enjoying’ some red wine at ‘Soto Soto’ a great Toronto Italian restaurant. Arnold is 74 and was much shorter than I had imagined. I think I could take him is what I told Rachel as we left the elevator. She laughed at me. I tell you though, it is a bummer to have never met/seen Arnold until the ripe old age of 74. Getting old is messy.
Have a great Sunday.
