What Happened?
Shares of shoe and apparel company Steven Madden (NASDAQ: SHOO) fell 8.2% in the morning session after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Underperform, warning of risks from ongoing weakness in its wholesale business and pushback on price hikes. The brokerage argued that Wall Street may have underestimated these challenges in its earnings forecasts. The concerns were echoed in a note from BTIG, which pointed out that headwinds from the previous year were expected to persist into 2026, especially in the private label business. To account for this, BTIG reduced its 2026 revenue estimates, anticipating a decline in that segment which could drag on overall top-line growth.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Steven Madden’s shares are very volatile and have had 26 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 9 months ago when the stock gained 16.7% on the news that the company reported decent first quarter 2025 results with EBITDA and EPS beating Wall Street's estimates, though sales missed by a whisker. What stood out was how the company kept profits steady, even though sales barely grew from last year. While the company pulled its full-year forecast due to new tariffs, it still sounds upbeat about the rest of the year. It also just closed a deal to buy Kurt Geiger, which should help drive new sales. Zooming out, we think this quarter was good.
Steven Madden is down 16% since the beginning of the year, and at $35.43 per share, it is trading 23.4% below its 52-week high of $46.23 from January 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Steven Madden’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $972.04.
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