Last week we saw a plethora of important earnings results and increased market volatility. This wee should be another busy one with a lot of important companies due to report. This week we have Amazon (AMZN), Palantir (PLTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOGL), PayPal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), Uber Technologies (UBER), Disney (DIS) and Merck (MRK) all reporting in what shapes as a busy and pivotal week for stocks.
Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create huge demand for the company’s options which increases the implied volatility, and therefore, the price of options.
After the earnings announcement, implied volatility usually drops back down to normal levels.
Let’s take a look at the expected range for these stocks. To calculate the expected range, look up the option chain and add together the price of the at-the-money put option and the at-the-money call option. Use the first expiry date after the earnings date. While this approach is not as accurate as a detailed calculation, it does serve as a reasonably accurate estimate.
Monday
PLTR – 10.4%
DIS – 6.3%
Tuesday
AMD – 8.8%
PYPL – 8.4%
PFE – 3.3%
PEP – 3.9%
MRK – 4.7%
CMG – 9.7%
Wednesday
GOOGL – 6.2%
LLY – 6.5%
NVO – 7.8%
UBER – 7.2%
QCOM – 6.5%
ARM – 9.2%
BSX – 5.0%
ABBV – 4.5%
Thursday
AMZN – 7.5%
MSTR – 8.7%
RBLX – 15.6%
B – 8.5%
COP – 4.1%
BMY – 4.5%
FTNT – 10.1%
Friday
Nothing of note
Option traders can use these expected moves to structure trades. Bearish traders can look at selling bear call spreads outside the expected range.
Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range, or look at naked puts for those with a higher risk tolerance.
Neutral traders can look at iron condors. When trading iron condors over earnings, it is best to keep the short strikes outside the expected range.
When trading options over earnings, it is best to stick to risk defined strategies and keep position size small. If the stock makes a larger than expected move and the trade suffers a full loss, it should not have more than a 1-3% effect on your portfolio.
Stocks With High Implied Volatility
We can use Barchart’s Stock Screener to find other stocks with high implied volatility.
Let’s run the stock screener with the following filters:
- Total call volume: Greater than 5,000
- Market Cap: Greater than 40 billion
- IV Rank: Greater than 50%
This screener produces the following results sorted by IV Rank.
You can refer to this article for details of how to find option trades for this earnings season.
Last Week’s Earnings Moves
UNH -19.0% vs 5.4% expected
BA -1.6% vs 5.0% expected
GM +8.8% vs 6.1% expected
UPS +0.2% vs 7.1% expected
NEE +2.0% vs 3.9% expected
STX +19.1% vs 11.2% expected
TSLA -3.5% vs 6.2% expected
MSFT -10.0% vs 5.4% expected
META +10.4% vs 6.7% expected
NOW -9.9% vs 8.0% expected
LRCX +3.6% vs 8.7% expected
SBUX -0.6% vs 8.0% expected
T +4.7% vs 4.5% expected
ASML -2.2% vs 7.0% expected
IBM +5.1% vs 6.5% expected
LVS -14.0% vs 6.5% expected
AAPL +0.5% vs 4.4% expected
SNDK +6.9% vs 14.7% expected
MO -5.3% vs 3.5% expected
WDC -10.1% vs 12.0% expected
V -3.0% vs 3.3% expected
CAT +3.4% vs 5.9% expected
BX -2.6% vs 4.7% expected
MA +4.3% vs 3.9% expected
LMT +4.2% vs 4.9% expected
XOM +0.6% vs 3.1% expected
VZ +11.8% vs 4.1% expected
CVX +3.3% vs 2.9% expected
Overall, there were 17 out of 28 that stayed within the expected range. 16 out of 28 moved higher following their announcement.
Unusual Options Activity
MSTR, CAT, TSLA, VZ, TTD, CRWV and RBLX all experienced unusual options activity last week.
Other stocks with unusual options activity are shown below:
Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment. This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster had a position in: AMZN , PYPL , CMG . All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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