iHeartMedia has gotten torched over the last six months - since October 2024, its stock price has dropped 36.2% to $1.27 per share. This was partly due to its softer quarterly results and might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is now the time to buy iHeartMedia, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.
Even with the cheaper entry price, we're swiping left on iHeartMedia for now. Here are three reasons why IHRT doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own.
Why Do We Think iHeartMedia Will Underperform?
Occasionally featuring celebrity hosts like Ryan Seacrest on its shows, iHeartMedia (NASDAQ: IHRT) is a leading multimedia company renowned for its extensive network of radio stations, digital platforms, and live events across the globe.
1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Flatter Than a Pancake
A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years. Unfortunately, iHeartMedia struggled to consistently increase demand as its $3.85 billion of sales for the trailing 12 months was close to its revenue five years ago. This was below our standards and is a sign of poor business quality.
2. EPS Trending Down
Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Sadly for iHeartMedia, its EPS declined by 15.9% annually over the last five years while its revenue was flat. This tells us the company struggled because its fixed cost base made it difficult to adjust to choppy demand.
3. Short Cash Runway Exposes Shareholders to Potential Dilution
As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.
iHeartMedia burned through $26.17 million of cash over the last year, and its $5.86 billion of debt exceeds the $259.6 million of cash on its balance sheet. This is a deal breaker for us because indebted loss-making companies spell trouble.
Unless the iHeartMedia’s fundamentals change quickly, it might find itself in a position where it must raise capital from investors to continue operating. Whether that would be favorable is unclear because dilution is a headwind for shareholder returns.
We remain cautious of iHeartMedia until it generates consistent free cash flow or any of its announced financing plans materialize on its balance sheet.
Final Judgment
iHeartMedia doesn’t pass our quality test. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 0.2× forward EV-to-EBITDA (or $1.27 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t see a big opportunity at the moment. There are better investments elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at a dominant Aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of iHeartMedia
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