What Happened?
Shares of toy manufacturing and entertainment company (NASDAQ: MAT) jumped 5.1% in the afternoon session after the company's management provided an optimistic outlook for its fourth quarter, which overshadowed weaker-than-expected third-quarter results.
The toy maker had reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that fell short of consensus estimates. This performance was attributed to industry-wide shifts in retailer ordering patterns which challenged its U.S. business. However, during the company's earnings call, management noted that orders from retailers in the U.S. had accelerated significantly since the beginning of the fourth quarter. Despite the quarterly miss, the company reiterated its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting net sales growth of 1% to 3%. This forward-looking confidence appeared to reassure investors, leading them to look past the recent difficulties and focus on the expected strong finish to the year.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $19.19, up 4.9% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Mattel’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 10 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 13 days ago when the stock dropped 4.7% on the news that worries over worsening trade relations with China were triggered by critical comments from President Donald Trump.
The President's comments, stating on social media that China has 'become very hostile,' have injected significant volatility into the broader markets. This has particularly affected the leisure industry, which is highly sensitive to economic sentiment and discretionary spending. Leisure stocks, which include companies in travel, entertainment, and hospitality, rely on consumers feeling confident enough to spend on non-essential goods and services. Trump targeted China's tightening controls on rare earth metals, which are vital components in many technology products from electric vehicles to defense systems. The president's tone and the suggestion of canceling a meeting with President Xi caused a rapid sell-off in the market.
Earlier in the week, China announced new export controls on the critical minerals. Beijing's Commerce Ministry stated that foreign suppliers now need government approval to export products containing certain rare-earth materials. These materials are essential for producing high-tech goods, including computer chips, electric vehicles, and defense technology. Analysts viewed the move as a strategic assertion of China's dominance in the global rare earth supply chain, particularly amid ongoing trade tensions. The prospect of escalating tariffs raises concerns about economic headwinds, which could lead to a slowdown in consumer spending. If consumers tighten their budgets in response to economic uncertainty, discretionary purchases are often the first to be cut, directly impacting the revenues of companies in this sector.
Mattel is up 8.2% since the beginning of the year, but at $19.19 per share, it is still trading 12.5% below its 52-week high of $21.94 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Mattel’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,356.
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