There's a blueprint behind every winning investment that tends to be forgotten during the good and easy times in the stock market. However, following a solid plan is being called for in today's environment. From 2020-2022, the VIX was more than 30%, meaning you could throw darts at a board and still come out winning overall.
Now that the VIX is at its lowest level since 2019, it is more important than ever to make sure you back those stocks with a good story behind them and a stampede of bulls giving them upward momentum. Today, a small group of stocks befit of that description, all found in the transportation sector.
Companies like Global Business Travel Group (NYSE: GBTG), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE: CP), and Knight-Swift Transportation (NYSE: KNX) have what it takes to bring your portfolio a bit of extra green days in the coming year, so do yourself a favor and stay awhile, you just might benefit from it.
Introducing a new wave
You can imagine that when the best wealth managers and traders out there sit at a round table to decide the fate of some of the investment dollars they manage, they would want to make sure that they are exposed to the industries showing strengthening growth, right?
If you can see that, then it would be easy to see why markets are beginning to love these stocks, as the ISM Services PMI index has been quietly expanding. The transportation industry is the knight in shining armor, leading its way higher.
Because its twin brother, the manufacturing PMI index, has been in contraction lately, the United States GDP growth has been delivered by the services sector, and inside that pocket, the transportation industry has been pushing a quarter of increasing activity.
Knowing what you know now, it should be no surprise to see how a recovering economy will look directly to those companies that make 'getting around' faster and easier, whether it is for people or products themselves. This structural pillar of business activity will likely see a profit bump come next quarter.
As they say, a story without numbers is just a fairytale, and numbers without a tale is just a spreadsheet. You are here because MarketBeat delivers both sides to you, so here is what you have been waiting for:
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), and J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), arguably the masters of the universe, have been investing in these companies as they understand what the future of the industry holds. But is everyone else on board?
Hurry to the wave
Global Business Travel saw BlackRock increase its stake by 1,169% in August; talk about being able to see far into the future! Invesco bumped its Canadian Pacific position by 21.7% in November, with J.P Morgan adding 5.1% to its Knight-Swift investment.
The rest of the market is piggybacking on these trades, as the evidence suggests. When a small group of whales, like these banks, make a move, the market always shows where they left their breadcrumbs that lead to the whole cake. Understanding the language is the bridge between them.
In plain English, markets are loving these stocks. How can you know? Start by taking the average forward price-to-earnings ratio for the industry. This 15.7x multiple seeks to value the next twelve months of earnings from the group as a whole.
Taking that benchmark value, anything above can be considered a premium stock (expensive for a reason), and anything above a cheap stock (cheap for a reason). Analysts will come to verify whether they should be trading where they currently are.
Global Business Travel trades at a 74.6x multiple, a 376% premium to the industry, and for good reason. Analysts see a price target of $8.7 for the stock, calling for a 45.0% rally from today's prices to meet it. A bank and industry favorite indeed.
For Canadian Pacific, a 22.1x multiple paces it 40.7% above the industry, with analysts shooting for a 30.3% upside from where it currently trades. With Kight-Swift commanding a 16.3% premium, its price targets reflect a decent 11.8% upside.
Notice how the more expensive the stock is, the more bullish analysts turn towards it? Remember, it's 'expensive' for a reason; just like better products and services call for higher price tags, so do the best stocks.
Pick and choose, but the answer is clear: whichever way you go, even in a low VIX environment, you have a double-digit upside backed by the larger economy at your fingertips.
